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Colonist io6/25/2023 Don’t worry though, the original Random Dice remains untouched! Using Dice Deck to control distributionĭice Deck is a card deck with all 36 combinations found in a 2 dice system. So, as game developers, it was important to us to provide a new optional dice algorithm, Balance Dice, that more closely matches expectations. While some of the most competitive among you argue that random dice are at the core of the game, this doesn’t change the fact that a large subset of you are frustrated by what can easily be perceived as a lack of randomness. More competitive Colonist players are often quoted saying “This is randomness, games on Colonist aren’t long enough to get an even distribution.” After crunching the numbers, we’ve worked out that games would only be expected to be evenly distributed after 200 turns! That is roughly the length of 4 games! This means 61% of the games have an awful dice graph. So what is the average Goodness of Fit for a standard game? Note below the increasing normality as we increase the Goodness of Fit: ![]() There are more complex explanations but this is a concept more easily visualized. The values span a range from 0 to 1 where a perfect distribution approaches a value of 1. To measure the probability of rolling non-ideal distributions, we used a statistical value called Goodness of Fit. 61% chance of rolling non-ideal distributions The Colonist.io dice actually has a ~1-2% lower total probability of rolling triples than expected. Next we compared 1 million Colonist.io simulations to the expected results. Does Colonist dice match expected results? If you’re curious on how we got to this answer, we broke it down. Yeah, we were surprised too! The statement "happens every other game" was quite correct. After running the numbers, for a 50 turn game the chance to roll a number three times in a row is 57%. To properly address why this is the case we need to consider the probability of rolling a □2 three times in a row OR a □3 three times in a row… OR a □12 three times in a row then sum all the probabilities together. 57% chance to roll the same number three times in a row. ![]() However, it seems like it happens every other game.” - SourceĪt your request, we revisited our algorithm and this is what we’ve found. “If there are 50 rolls in a game, the chances any number is rolled 3 times consecutively at any points in the game is 3.8%. Skewed distribution (Example: □3 rolling way more than □5).Roll Streaks (Example: rolling □4 multiple times in a row).So we researched this comprehensively and we were surprised by the results! 2 Common issues players run into: The “broken” dice algorithm is a highly debated topic. Read more about our balanced dice algorithm. 5 min read “The odds are way too low to roll a □6 three times in a row!” “Look at this distribution, it’s nuts, what are the odds of rolling □4 three times more than □5?” “Wow, I just played a game and the □7 almost didn’t roll!”.
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